Brighton and Hove needs almost 40,000 new homes by 2040, says report

Brighton and Hove needs almost 40,000 new homes to be built over the next 15 years, according to a new report.

The figure was estimated using the government’s new standard method for determining minimum housing need which was adopted in December.

The report, by planning consultancy Marrons, said that 37,400 new homes would be required in Brighton and Hove by 2040 – or 2,498 homes a year, an 8 per cent increase on the previous requirement.

In 2023, a strategic housing market assessment for Brighton and Hove, by Iceni Projects, found that new homes were being built at the rate of 513 a year from 2011 to 2021 – just over a fifth of the rate now required.

The highest figure was 1,073 new homes in 2021-22, Iceni Projects said, in an assessment that relied heavily on figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Since then, housing completions in Brighton and Hove have remained above average – at 860 in 2023 and a new high of 1,075 in 2024 – but still below the daunting 2,500-a-year target.

These include 242 homes in Denman Place, Coldean, pictured above, of which 127 are council homes, part of a joint venture with Hyde housing association to build at least 1,000 truly affordable homes in the area.

Marrons economic director Dan Usher, who specialises in housing need evidence, said: “Brighton and Hove faces a significant challenge in meeting its housing needs due to its geographically constrained administrative boundaries.

The highest figure was 1,073 new homes in 2021-22, Iceni Projects said, in an assessment that relied heavily on figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Since then, housing completions in Brighton and Hove have remained above average – at 860 in 2023 and a new high of 1,075 in 2024 – but still below the daunting 2,500-a-year target.

“By adopting greater co-operation between local authorities, we can better tackle the unmet housing demands that have long been a barrier to delivering sufficient homes.

“Without this cross-boundary collaboration, the challenge will continue to grow as the region’s population expands.”

Marrons socio-economic research experts analysed the latest ONS Census data from 2021 as well as population projections from 2018 to forecast housing needs in 2040.

They also looked at council housing registers, affordable housing stock records and extrapolated housing requirement figures using the government’s newly adopted standard method.

The population of the south east is projected to increase by 7 per cent to almost 8.2 million over the next 15 years. A shortfall in building new homes would fuel high property prices and rents even more.

In the same period, Brighton and Hove is forecast to have the biggest increase in demand from first-time buyers – 17 per cent – driven in part by university students saying after they graduate.

Mr Usher added: “Already, England has been named as the most difficult place to find a home in the developed world and our ageing population and rising property prices will only exacerbate the problem.

“If we are going to meet the requirements of the population in 2040, we need to prioritise future residents and start building the right homes today.”

Brighton and Hove City Council deputy leader Gill Williams said: “We know we have a huge housing crisis in the country which is particularly acute in this city.

“It has a huge impact on families and residents – and we are laser-focused on tackling it.”

Councillor Williams, the cabinet member for housing and new homes, added: “That’s why it’s so important we build new housing in Brighton and Hove, in particular, social and affordable properties.

“I’m really pleased that the city has delivered the highest number of new homes in well over a decade.”